The Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Structural Change

Nicolas Büttner, Michael Grimm, Isabel Günther, Kenneth Harttgen and Stephan Klasen
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Nicolas Büttner: ETH Zurich
Isabel Günther: ETH Zurich
Kenneth Harttgen: ETH Zurich

No 15966, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: Despite the recent economic growth in many countries on the African continent, the region has seen a slow fertility transition. In this study, we explore whether the lack of structural economic change can explain this slow fertility transition. We create a unique panel data set combining Demographic and Health Surveys, Household Income Surveys, and nighttime light intensity data, as an indicator for industrialization, from 57 countries at the sub-national regional level over three decades to analyze the driving forces of fertility transitions across low- and middle-income countries. Our results confirm that household wealth, reduced child mortality, and female basic education are crucial for fertility reductions. Yet, our analysis also highlights the important role of increased female labor force participation in the formal sector, industrialization, increased female secondary education, and the expansion of health insurance coverage. Urbanization appears to have a limited, if any, effect. Our simulations indicate that if high-fertility countries in sub-Saharan Africa had experienced similar structural economic change as low- and middle-income countries with low fertility, their fertility levels could be up to 50% lower.

Keywords: structural change; fertility; demographic transition; human capital; sub-Saharan Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D13 J11 J13 J22 O12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2023-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-dev, nep-evo and nep-hea
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Published - published in: Demography, 2024, 61 (5), 1585–1611.

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Working Paper: The fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The role of structural change (2022)
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