Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration

Michał Burzyński (), Christoph Deuster (), Frédéric Docquier and Jaime de Melo

No 12623, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: This paper investigates the long-term implications of climate change on local, interregional, and international migration of workers. For nearly all of the world's countries, our micro-founded model jointly endogenizes the effects of changing temperature and sea level on income distribution and individual decisions about fertility, education, and mobility. Climate change intensifies poverty and income inequality creating favorable conditions for urbanization and migration from low- to high-latitude countries. Encompassing slow- and fast-onset mechanisms, our projections suggest that climate change will induce the voluntary and forced displacement of 100 to 160 million workers (200 to 300 million climate migrants of all ages) over the course of the 21st century. However, under current migration laws and policies, forcibly displaced people predominantly relocate within their country and merely 20% of climate migrants opt for long-haul migration to OECD countries. If climate change induces generalized and persistent conflicts over resources in regions at risk, we project significantly larger cross-border flows in the future.

Keywords: urbanization; inequality; migration; climate change; conflicts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 F22 J24 J61 O15 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 64 pages
Date: 2019-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev, nep-env and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (36)

Published - published in: Journal of the European Economic Association, 2022, 20 (3), 1145 - 1197

Downloads: (external link)
https://docs.iza.org/dp12623.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration (2022)
Working Paper: Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration (2022)
Working Paper: Climate change, Inequality and Human Migration (2019)
Working Paper: Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration (2019)
Working Paper: Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration (2019)
Working Paper: Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration (2019)
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