2°C or Not 2°C?

Céline Guivarch and Stephane Hallegatte

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Abstract: Political attention has increasingly focused on limiting warming to 2°C. However, there is no consensus on both questions "Is the 2°C target achievable?" and "What should be done with this target that becomes increasingly difficult to achieve?". This paper aims at disentangling the points of deep uncertainty underlying this absence on consensus. It first gives simple visualizations of the challenge posed by the 2°C target and shows how key assumptions (on the points of deep uncertainty) influence the answer to the target achievability question. It then proposes an "uncertainties and decisions tree", linking different beliefs on climate change, the achievability of different policies, and current international policy dynamics to various options to move forward on climate change.

Keywords: feasibility of 2°C target; climate change negotiations; deep uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-02-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00750704v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Published in Global environmental change:Human and policy dimensions, 2013, 23 (1), pp.179-192. ⟨10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.006⟩

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Working Paper: 2°C or not 2°C? (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00750704

DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.006

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