Foresight for sustainable energy policy in Egypt: results from a Delphi survey

Mohamed Ramadan A. Rezk, Amr Radwan, Nahed M. Salem, Mahmoud M. Sakr and Manuela Tvaronavičienė
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Mohamed Ramadan A. Rezk: Academy of Scientific Research & Technology
Amr Radwan: Academy of Scientific Research & Technology
Nahed M. Salem: Academy of Scientific Research & Technology
Mahmoud M. Sakr: Academy of Scientific Research & Technology
Manuela Tvaronavičienė: Vilnius Gediminas Technical University

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Abstract: This paper presents energy opportunities, particular areas of high potential and reflections on energy challenges in Egypt by the year 2040. Energy foresight significantly contributes in the effective review and formulation of national energy policies and strategies. In this work, 350 experts participated in real-time Delphi survey and responded to a set of structured and cross-linked questionnaires that aim to assess and provide future dimension to the energy sector in Egypt. Priorities are presented across 14 energy cluster-areas with 180 identified topics. The two-round Delphi study with an iterative process was performed to determine and measure the expectations of the different stakeholders with specific emphasis on the prospects of renewable energy and energy efficiency. The designed cross-linkages between survey components allowed the systematic pooling and convergence of knowledge in addition to the technical insights and different perspectives. About 50% of Egypt's energy demand was foresighted to be met by renewable energies around 2030. The results showed that all types of energy would not only provide economic and environmental benefits but also improve living standards. This work demonstrates that involving large diversity of expertise and different stakeholders, comprising heterogeneous groups, in foresight studies would potentiate the forecasting power, reduce the polarization effect, and enhance the reliability of the foresight exercise.

Keywords: science policy; foresight; Delphi survey; energy; sustainable development; renewable energy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-12-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-ene and nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02342723
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Published in Insights into Regional Development, 2019, 1 (4), pp.357-369. ⟨10.9770/ird.2019.1.4(6)⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02342723

DOI: 10.9770/ird.2019.1.4(6)

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