Une politique budgétaire keynésienne neutralisant les stabilisateurs automatiques en haut de cycle: le cas de la France en 2000-2001

Abstract: A pro-cyclical keynesian fiscal policy neutralizing the impact of automatic stabilizers: the case of France in 2000-2001. This paper suggests a simple empirical method assessing the impact on growth of public finances in the short-run, namely a) the ex-ante fiscal impulse, b) its ex-post impact on growth and c) the ex-post overall impact on growth of public finances. Applying this method to the expansionary episode of the French fiscal policy in 2000-2001 yields two main results. The aggregate Keynesian multiplier for French public finances is most probably below 1 – which is in line with one of the implications of the neo-ricardian model. The effect on growth of the French pro-cyclical fiscal policy completely offset the impact of the automatic stabilizers during the latest cyclical peak. As a consequence, stimulating the economy during the following cyclical downswing became impossible because no margin of maneuver remained.

Date: 2006
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Working Paper: Une politique budgétaire keynésienne neutralisant les stabilisateurs automatiques en haut de cycle: le cas de la France en 2000-2001 (2006)
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