Theoretical foundations of fiscal gap as a long-term fiscal sustainability indicator and its estimates for Russia

Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev, Eugene Goryunov and Laurence Kotlikoff

Research Paper Series, 2015, issue 168P, 58

Abstract: Fiscal gap is an indicator of long run sustainability of government finance. It is used for assessment of the extent to which current fiscal policy is able to keep government budget solvent in the longer period. Fiscal gap is derived from intertemporal budget constraint which connects flows of budget outlays and receipts aggregated along decades. Fiscal gap is defined as a sum of current government debt and present value of future primary deficit flow. In order to get an estimate of Russia’s general government fiscal gap we consider three scenarios which are based on different assumptions regarding demographic trends, productivity growth, extractable reserves of oil and natural gas, long term price of oil and natural gas etc.

Keywords: Russian economy; public finance; budget sustainability; fiscal gap; budget spending (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 H51 H52 H55 H62 H63 H68 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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http://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/rpaper/125Sinelnikov.pdf Revised version, 2015 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Theoretical foundations of fiscal gap as a long-term fiscal sustainability indicator and its estimates for Russia (2015)
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