Deconstructing the yield curve

Richard Crump and Nikolay Gospodinov

No 884, Staff Reports from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: We introduce a novel nonparametric bootstrap for the yield curve which is agnostic to the true factor structure of interest rates. We deconstruct the yield curve into primitive objects, with weak cross-sectional and time-series dependence, that serve as building blocks for resampling the data. We analyze the properties of the bootstrap for mimicking salient features of the data and conducting valid inference. We demonstrate the benefits of our general method by revisiting the predictability of bond returns based on slow-moving fundamentals. We find that trend inflation, but not the equilibrium real rate, has predictive power for future bond returns.

Keywords: term structure of interest rates; resampling-based inference; factor models; bond risk premiums; predictive regression of bond returns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C15 C58 G10 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 70
Date: 2019-04-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-ets
Note: Revised August 2024.
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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