Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans

Laura Veldkamp

No 2022-083, Finance and Economics Discussion Series from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: Economic uncertainty is a powerful force in the modern economy. Research shows that surges in uncertainty can trigger business cycles, bank runs and asset price fluctuations. But where do sudden surges in uncertainty come from? This paper provides a data-disciplined theory of belief formation that explains large fluctuations in uncertainty. It argues that people do not know the true distribution of macroeconomic outcomes. Like Bayesian econometricians, they estimate a distribution. Our main contribution is to explain why real-time estimation of distributions with non-normal tails results in large uncertainty fluctuations. We use theory and data to show how small changes in estimated skewness whip around probabilities of unobserved tail events (black swans). Our estimates, based on real-time GDP data, reveal that revisions in the estimates of black swan risk explain most of the fluctuations in uncertainty.

Keywords: forecast bias; rational expectations; model uncertainty; expectations formation; bayesian econometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 D80 D84 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43 p.
Date: 2022-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac, nep-rmg and nep-upt
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2022-83

DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2022.083

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