A Risk-Hedging View to Refinery Capacity Investment

Hamed Ghoddusi () and Franz Wirl
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Hamed Ghoddusi: School of Business, Stevens Institute of Technology

No 1327, Working Papers from Economic Research Forum

Abstract: Should oil-rich members of OPEC invest in the oil refinery industry? This is a crucial energy policy question for such economies. We offer theoretical models for a vertical integration strategy within an oil-producing economy, based on a risk-hedging view. The first model highlights the trade-off between return and risk-reduction features of upstream/downstream sectors. The dynamic model demonstrates the volatility of total budgetary revenue of each sector. Our theory-guided empirical analysis shows that though the average markup in the refining sector is significantly smaller than the profits in the upstream, downstream investment can provide some hedging value. In particular, the more stable and mean-reverting refining margins provide a partial revenue cushion when crude oil prices are low. We discuss the risk-hedging feature of the refinery industry when the crude oil market faces supply versus demand shocks.

Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2019-08-21, Revised 2019-08-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-rmg
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Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)

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