Aggregate trading behaviour of technical models and the yen/dollar exchange rate 1976-2007

Japan and the World Economy, 2009, vol. 21, issue 3, 270-279

Abstract: The study analyzes the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen/dollar exchange rate. I show first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 2007. I then show that the aggregate transactions and positions of technical models exert an excess demand pressure on currency markets since they are mostly on the same side of the market. When technical models produce trading signals almost all of them are either buying or selling, when they maintain open positions they are either long or short. A strong interaction prevails between exchange rate movements and the transactions triggered by technical models. An initial rise of the exchange rate due to news, e.g., is systematically lengthened through a sequence of technical buy signals.

Keywords: Exchange; rate; Technical; trading; Speculation; Heterogeneous; agents (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0922-1425(08)00040-6
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: Aggregate Trading Behaviour of Technical Models and the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate 1976-2007 (2008)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:japwor:v:21:y:2009:i:3:p:270-279

Access Statistics for this article

Japan and the World Economy is currently edited by Robert Dekle and Yasushi Hamao

More articles in Japan and the World Economy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().