[go: up one dir, main page]

  EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Forecasting world trade: direct versus "bottom-up" approaches

Stephane Dees and Matthias Burgert

No 882, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to "bottom-up" approaches, where world trade results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows. JEL Classification: C53, C32, E37, F17

Keywords: factor models; forecasts; Time series models.; world trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-03
Note: 2544114
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp882.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting World Trade: Direct Versus “Bottom-Up” Approaches (2009) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008882

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Paper Series from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Official Publications ().

 
Page updated 2024-12-24
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008882