Modeling model uncertainty

No 169, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: Recently there has been much interest in studying monetary policy under model uncertainty. We develop methods to analyze different sources of uncertainty in one coherent structure useful for policy decisions. We show how to estimate the size of the uncertainty based on time series data, and incorporate this uncertainty in policy optimization. We propose two different approaches to modeling model uncertainty. The first is model error modeling, which imposes additional structure on the errors of an estimated model, and builds a statistical description of the uncertainty around a model. The second is set membership identification, which uses a deterministic approach to find a set of models consistent with data and prior assumptions. The center of this set becomes a benchmark model, and the radius measures model uncertainty. Using both approaches, we compute the robust monetary policy under different model uncertainty specifications in a small model of the US economy. JEL Classification: E52, C32, D81

Keywords: estimation; model uncertainty; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Modeling Model Uncertainty (2003)
Working Paper: Modeling Model Uncertainty (2003)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2002169

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