Forecasting Unemployment across Countries: the Ins and Outs

No 10910, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper evaluates the flow approach to unemployment forecasting proposed by Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) for a set of OECD countries characterized by very different labor markets. We find that the flow approach yields substantial improvements in forecast accuracy over professional forecasts for all countries, with especially large improvements at longer horizons (one-year ahead forecasts) for European countries. Moreover, the flow approach has the highest predictive ability during recessions and turning points, when unemployment forecasts are most valuable.

Keywords: Steady-state unemployment; Stock-flow model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E27 J6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-lab and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Journal Article: Forecasting unemployment across countries: The ins and outs (2016)
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