Output gap and Neutral interest measures for Colombia

Andres Gonzalez, Sergio Ocampo, Julián Pérez () and Diego Rodriguez Guzman ()

No 9870, Borradores de Economia from Banco de la Republica

Abstract: In this paper two new measures of the Colombian output gap and the real neutral interest rate are proposed. Instead of relying only on statistical filters, the proposed measures use semi-structural New-Keynesian models, adapted for a small open economy. The output gap measures presented are in line with previous works for Colombia and capture all the turning points of the Colombian business cycle, as measured by Alfonso et al. (2011). They are also strongly correlated with inflation and precede its movements along the sample. The neutral interest rate computed indicates that the monetary policy stance has been overall countercyclical, but has failed to anticipate the output gap´s movements, or at least react strongly enough to them.

Keywords: Output Gap; New-keynesian model; Neutral interest rate. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E23 E32 E43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26
Date: 2012-08-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/be_726.pdf

Related works:
Journal Article: Output Gap and Neutral Interest Measures of Colombia (2013)
Working Paper: Output gap and Neutral interest measures for Colombia (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:col:000094:009870

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