Alternative Methods for Projecting Equity Returns: Implications for Evaluating Social Security Reform Proposals: Technical Paper 2003-08

John Sabelhaus and Joel V. Smith

No 14678, Working Papers from Congressional Budget Office

Abstract: The effect upon future Social Security benefits resulting from the introduction of individual accounts depends on both the potential risks and returns of private equities, yet the historical evidence about determinants of stock market risks and returns is mixed. In particular, correlations between equity returns and market fundamentals (such as the dividend price ratio) are weak at annual frequencies, which has led some to conclude that a random returns (fixed mean and variance) model is the preferred specification for simulating the future path of equity returns. Although

Date: 2003-08-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/108th-cong ... ngpaper/2003-8_0.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cbo:wpaper:14678

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Congressional Budget Office Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().