SIDA et croissance économique: le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »

Nicolas Couderc, Nicolas Drouhin () and Bruno Ventelou

Revue d'économie politique, 2006, vol. 116, issue 5, 697-715

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to re-examine the consequences of AIDS on economic growth inAfrica.The model is based on two crucial hypothesis: i) AIDS has a short-term impact on a flow variable (the flow of labour available and capable of working at a moment t in the economy); ii) AIDS has a long-term impact on stock variables (human capital, i.e. the stock of health or the stock of education and competence incorporated in the workers; and physical capital). Integrating these two impacts in a model of growth with multiple factors of accumulation reverses the standard impact-evaluations based on classicaltools(Solow-typemodelofgrowth,with?catching-upeffect?asmechanismof development). An involution trap appears for a reasonable range of epidemiological shocks, corresponding to a modification of the long-term growth regime of the economy.

Keywords: economic growth; health; HIV/AIDS; endogenous growth model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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