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The Impact of Carbon Taxes on the Value of Fossil-Fuel Reserves and the Efficiency of Climate Policy

William Nordhaus ()
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William Nordhaus: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, https://cowles.yale.edu/people/william-nordhaus

No 2344, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: The present study analyzes the impact of carbon pricing along with other policies on the value of fossil fuel resources, CO2 emissions, and economic welfare. It employs a model based on the Hotelling analysis of resource values and calibrates this approach to data on fossil resources, costs, demands, and CO2 emissions. Total fossil-fuel resource rents are estimated to be $17 trillion (2021 US$) without carbon pricing. Oil and gas rents are unchanged for low carbon taxes but would decline by 40% with a $100/tCO2 price. The losses in producer values would be only about 10% of the carbon tax revenues. The study also shows that other policies Ð such as ones involving ethical investing or subsidies for renewable energy Ð are very inefficient and poor substitutes for carbon pricing.

Pages: 67 pages
Date: 2022-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
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