[go: up one dir, main page]

  EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The impact of COVID‐19 pandemic on the Thai economy and the effectiveness of monetary policy: A Bayesian DSGE model approach

Samuel Kwesi Dunyo and Saran Sarntisart

Asian Economic Journal, 2024, vol. 38, issue 1, 3-34

Abstract: This study estimates a medium‐scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Thai economy to evaluate the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic containment policy on key macroeconomic aggregates. The shock to labor supply is considered as the main transmission channel. The paper discussed the role of monetary policy in regard to economic recovery and also identified the dominant shocks driving the business cycle. Thai quarterly series from 2011Q1 to 2021Q2 is used for the Bayesian estimation of the model. Though the pandemic shock caused a sharp decline in output, consumption and investment, the results suggest a fast recovery in the growth rates of the variables in about 2.5 years. At the same time, the dominant shocks that account for output variation in the medium to long term are investment, labor supply and productivity shocks. Monetary policy is effective in shortening the recovery due to its impact on private investment. The key drivers of Thai household consumption in the long run are investment, labor supply and productivity shocks. On average, the investment shock appears to be the key driver of the business cycle at all horizons.

Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/asej.12316

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:asiaec:v:38:y:2024:i:1:p:3-34

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=1351-3958

Access Statistics for this article

Asian Economic Journal is currently edited by Sung Yun-Wing and Shigeyuki Abe

More articles in Asian Economic Journal from East Asian Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

 
Page updated 2024-09-05
Handle: RePEc:bla:asiaec:v:38:y:2024:i:1:p:3-34