Export structure, import demand elasticity and export stability

Hua Zhou and Jiachen Fan

The World Economy, 2023, vol. 46, issue 3, 758-790

Abstract: This paper optimises the definition and measurement method of export stability and analyses the impact of export structure on export stability. The main results show that (1) an increase in the export share appears to reduce the export stability of goods, by changing the importer's elasticity of import demand; (2) exporters can reduce the impact of export structure on the export stability of goods by increasing the technical complexity of export products, improving the trade freedom level and signing free trade agreements (FTA) with importers; (3) export share has a negative impact on the export stability of services; and (4) the development of intra‐industry trade (IIT) in services and the digitisation of services can reduce the impact of export structure on the export stability of services. The results can provide a reference for the management of export instability against the background of export specialisation.

Date: 2023
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