Uncertainty in the Estimation of Potential Output and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy

Sra Chuenchoksan, Don Nakornthab and Surach Tanboon
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Sra Chuenchoksan: Bank of Thailand
Don Nakornthab: Bank of Thailand
Surach Tanboon: Bank of Thailand

No 2008-04, Working Papers from Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand

Abstract: This paper looks at the implications of uncertainty in potential output estimation for the conduct of monetary policy. Our findings of potential output and the output gap for Thailand are based on commonly used methods such as the Hodrick-Prescott filter and unobserved component models. Estimation problems associated with real-time data, parameter uncertainty, and model uncertainty are investigated. In dealing with such uncertainties, we review various solutions from both theoretical and practical aspects of monetary policy design.

Pages: 52 pages
Date: 2008-04
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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