The Implications of Chinas Pattern of Growth For the Rest of the World

Stephen Tokarick

No 332818, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: Detailed estimates of the pattern of growth in China—capital accumulation, labor input growth, and changes in total factor productivity by sector—are used along with a global model of production and trade for 18 regions and 24 sectors to estimate how these developments affect other countries. The results show that the annual average TFP growth in China over the period 1982-2000 harms some economies, such as Korea and Japan, by reducing the prices of some key export goods, while benefiting other economies, such as Russia and sub-Saharan Africa, by improving their terms of trade. TFP growth in China also reduces output, employment, and real wages in some manufacturing sectors in the United States, the Euro Area, and Japan. In contrast, capital accumulation in China results in only welfare gains for most countries. Keywords: technological change, welfare, terms of trade JEL Classification codes: C68, F11, O33

Keywords: Political; Economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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