From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment

Rajeev Dehejia, Cristian Pop-Eleches and Cyrus Samii

No 21459, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We study issues related to external validity for treatment effects using over 100 replications of the Angrist and Evans (1998) natural experiment on the effects of sibling sex composition on fertility and labor supply. The replications are based on census data from around the world going back to 1960. We decompose sources of error in predicting treatment effects in external contexts in terms of macro and micro sources of variation. In our empirical setting, we find that macro covariates dominate over micro covariates for reducing errors in predicting treatments, an issue that past studies of external validity have been unable to evaluate. We develop methods for two applications to evidence-based decision-making, including determining where to locate an experiment and whether policy-makers should commission new experiments or rely on an existing evidence base for making a policy decision.

JEL-codes: C18 C31 C9 F63 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-08
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Forthcoming in the Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

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Related works:
Journal Article: From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment (2021)
Working Paper: From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment (2019)
Working Paper: From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment (2015)
Working Paper: From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment (2015)
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