Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions

S. Boragan Aruoba and Francis Diebold

No 15657, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We sketch a framework for monitoring macroeconomic activity in real-time and push it in new directions. In particular, we focus not only on real activity, which has received most attention to date, but also on inflation and its interaction with real activity. As for the recent recession, we find that (1) it likely ended around July 2009; (2) its most extreme aspects concern a real activity decline that was unusually long but less unusually deep, and an inflation decline that was unusually deep but brief; and (3) its real activity and inflation interactions were strongly positive, consistent with an adverse demand shock.

JEL-codes: E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (79)

Published as S. Borağan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 20-24, May.

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Journal Article: Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions (2010)
Working Paper: Real-time macroeconomic monitoring: real activity, inflation, and interactions (2010)
Working Paper: Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions (2010)
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