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AGENT BASED MODELING OF GSM CONSUMER BEHAVIOR MODEL

Globalization, rapid technology changes, deregulation and competition among cellular operators create fast and non linear changing of telecommunication industry especially cellular industry. Higher customers growth is followed by decreasing basic service (voice) average revenue per user (ARPU) and increasing of customers churn. It shoves cellular operators to increase their revenues from new and innovative value added (non-voice) services. These require an essential method and tool for simulating, analyzing, predicting and anticipating rapid and non linear changing on cellular market.

THE OBJECTIVES

The objectives of this research are to develop virtual world on Agent Based Modeling (ABM) of GSM consumer behavior model for cellular operators in Indonesia and to utilize the virtual world for simulating, predicting, analyzing and understanding influence of marketing communication performance and reference group toward consumer behavior changes and its impact to acceptance rate of GSM cellular operator in Indonesia.

RESEARCH METHODS

This research is based on computational agent based modeling experimental method. Research types are descriptive, verificative and predictive. ABM virtual world is developed based on observation and interviews to VMS’s consumers between February 2007 to February 2008. Model is validated by comparing model generated data to real data from Excelcomindo. Then the valid model is utilized for simulating, predicting, analyzing and understanding the influence of marketing communication performance and reference group toward consumer behavior changes and its impact to acceptance rate of GSM cellular operator in Indonesia.

Key words: consumer behavior, agent based modeling, marketing communication performance, group reference, consumer acceptance rate

HOW IT WORKS

Consumer behaviours are influence by marketing effort from celular operators and influence of group reference sorrounding the consumers.
Those influences are compare with internal threshold within consumer. If the external influence is higher than internal threshold there will be positif changing. However if the external influences are lower than internal consumer threshold there are no changing in consumer behaviour.

There two kind of external influence; marketing communication and group refence. Both could impact on consumer behaviour

HOW TO USE IT

Change level of external influence such as product information level, price level and product benefit. Or change the consumer internal level such as customer ability or customer need.

THINGS TO NOTICE

Acceptance level of consumer will be varies according to input level

CREDITS AND REFERENCES

Yudi Limbar Yasik
Program Doktor, Program Studi Ekonomi
Jurusan Manajemen, Fakultas Ekonomi UNPAD, Dipatiukur, Bandung
yudiyasik@yahoo.com